Last week we learned the Case-Shiller 20-city home price index was up 0.76% month-over-month and 12.86% year-over-year in February.
Calculated Risk’s Bill McBride points out Zillow has begun forecasting Case-Shiller a month early, and that it’s worth looking at what they say “since they have been pretty close.”
Well here’s what they say: Home price appreciation in the U.S. is basically about to grind to a halt. Here’s Zillow economic research director Svenja Gudell from a few days ago:
Case-Shiller indices have shown very little slowing in monthly appreciation, as they continue to show a somewhat inflated picture of home prices. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we have been expecting them to finally show what other housing indicators have long been indicating: a broad slowdown in home value appreciation across the nation. Finally, February numbers are showing more of a slowdown and you can actually see the slowdown in the data (before, it was more talked about than actually shown), and this slowdown will carry into the March numbers.
Zillow now forecasts March will see a 0.8% gain for the 20-City Composite Index — the same as January’s revised figure — and just an 11.9% YOY price increase in March. The next Case-Shiller comes out May 27. You can see in this recent Zillow chart a kink has sprung up in the appreciation trend:
And here’s Zillow vs. Case-Shiller recently:
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