David Zervos, chief markets strategist at Jefferies, is a little surprised by the market reaction to recent news.
On Friday, we learned that the U.S. economy added 209,000 jobs in July. This number missed estimates but Zervos points out that the three-month, six-month, and 12-month moving averages are 245,000 244,000 and 214,000. “This is an achievement, not a problem,” he writes.
We also learned that the U.S. economy expanded 4% in the second quarter and the FOMC’s language barely changed.
“Sounds like risk asset bliss right?” asks Zervos in the note, which is titled ‘Why do we call these corrections’.
“But the markets are reacting to this good fortune as if someone threw a Baby Ruth in the swimming pool,” he says.
Zervos admits the recent market anxiety may be attributable to rising geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Gaza, and amid concerns about Banco Espirito Santo and Argentina. “The reality is that we can consolidate in markets at any time. We don’t need a fundamental/geopolitical reason.”
“In any case I certainly see no fundamental reason why we should break down and stay down. This looks like a garden variety risk-off move sparked by positioning, psychology and/or outside factors. Just like with Cyprus, Greece, the Treasury downgrade, the government shutdown, the fiscal cliff and even the increase trouble between JayZ and Beyonce; this latest rough patch will pass. We may have a little more to go before we wash out some of the weaker hands, but let’s all keep our eye on the prize: a risk-on reflationary recovery! It’s still the endgame.
“Lastly, for most of this year (and much of last 5 years) we have been constantly warned by the hater community about a coming market “correction”. And that got me thinking – why do people refer to a market drop as a “correction”. This nomenclature implies that the “correct” level for the market is lower. There is NOTHING correct about a lower market. In fact, I would call these down moves “aberrations” not a “corrections”. And while these states of abnormality can last a bit longer than we would like, I firmly believe a true “correction” to HIGHER levels will ultimately put us back on the path toward normalcy. Good luck trading.”
So who’s going to play Carl Spackler and take a bite of that Baby Ruth?
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