Zaky: A New iPhone Is Coming In June, Here’s Why

Tim Cook Verizon iPhone press conference

[credit provider=”Dan Frommer, Business Insider”]

At this point, it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that Apple will not release a new iPhone (supposedly called iPhone 4S) until September.Plugged-in Apple reporter Jim Dalyrymple says its coming in September. Jefferies analyst Peter Misek says its coming in September, FBR analyst Craig Berger says its coming in September, and so on.

But now we have a dissenting voice on the iPhone 4S. 

Independent analyst Andy Zaky says the next iPhone is coming in June or July. Unlike the other people who have Apple sources informing them, Zaky bases his assertion on reading the tea leaves of Apple’s guidance, and a pinch of common sense.

We still think Apple releases its iPhone in September based on all the reporting, which seems to be coming in a pretty concerted way from Apple to lower expectations.

But, Zaky’s argument is interesting. Here’s what he says:

  • Apple wouldn’t delay the release for a minor update. Most reporting says the next iPhone will be minor update to the iPhone 4, an iPhone 4S, like the iPhone 3GS. If Apple is only going to make a minor upgrade, then why the delay?
  • Steve Jobs wants to surprise people, so Apple is downplaying the chance of an iPhone in June. After last year’s iPhone in a bar, Jobs wants to have a big reveal.
  • Apple increased its operating expense guidance for this quarter. Zaky says it increases guidance when it’s preparing for a big retail event, like the release of an iPhone. He says this years guidance of $2.5 billion in OpEx is the “most aggressive” it’s ever offered, which is surprising considering it’s a very slow quarter, traditionally. Read the whole thing >

See Also: Here’s Every iPhone 5 rumour We Know About So Far