Your 10-second guide to today's Australian retail sales report

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Australia’s retail sales report for June will be released today at 11:30am AEST.

Despite challenging conditions for the industry, retail sales have been making a bit of a comeback lately, with monthly data beating expectations in April and May.

This morning’s release will also include retail sales volumes for the June quarter. The volume data will be an important barometer of Q2 GDP growth, given retail makes up around one third of household consumption — which in turn represents the biggest component of GDP (around 60%).

Currency markets will also be closely watching the latest retail figures, after the Australian dollar came under pressure last night.

Here’s the state of play:

  • In May, sales rose by 0.4% to $26.67 billion in seasonally adjusted terms, exceeding the median economist forecast for an increase of 0.3%.
  • Analysts attributed part of the increase to unseasonally cold weather, which drove increased spending on clothes and department stores.
  • Excluding food, and providing a better overall indication on discretionary spending patterns, sales rose by 0.4% after a 0.6% gain in April.
  • Sales of clothing, food and household goods increased, offsetting slight falls in spending at cafes and other retailers.
  • The median forecast offered to Bloomberg looks for an increase of 0.3% June. Individual forecasts range from a decline of 0.1% to a gain of 0.7%.
  • Quarterly trade volumes are expected to rise by 0.8%, after posting a 0.2% gain in the three months to March. Bloomberg forecasts range from 1.0% to -0.4%.
  • The National Australia Bank’s cashless retail sales indicator points to another solid result ahead of today’s release.
  • In addition, Westpac’s consumer sentiment index rose to the highest level in four years in July, propelled by stronger confidence levels towards the economic outlook.
  • The March retail sales report will be released at 11.30am AEST.

    Business Insider will have all of the facts and figures as soon as it hits the screens.

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