Like it or loathe it, Australia’s June jobs report will be the centre of attention of Australian financial markets today.
The release has a knack of offering up surprises, particularly the volatile seasonally adjusted figures. This report, perhaps more so than normal, will be no exception.
Here’s the state of play.
- In May, employment increased by 17,900 to 11.931 million, topping expectations for a smaller gain of 15,000.
- It left total employment growth over the past year at 224,800, up 1.9%.
- Full time employment came in flat, leaving the gains over the past 12 months at 64,700. That equates to an annual increase of 0.8%.
- In comparison, part time employment grew by 17,900, leaving total growth from May 2015 at 160,100. This equates to an enormous 4.4% increase compared to the levels of a year earlier.
- Female employment growth over the past year stood at 141,000, an increase of 2.62%. Males, in comparison, recorded growth of just 83,800, a rise of 1.33%.
- With the national participation rate holding steady at 64.8%, the unemployment rate held at 5.7% for a second consecutive month.
- Total hours worked increased by 27.7 million hours to 1,643.1 million hours, an enormous rise of 1.7%.
- Turning to today’s report, employment growth is expected to slow with the median economist forecast looking for an increase of 10,000.
- The forecasts for employment growth are wide — even more so than normal — given uncertainty generated by the construction of the survey.
- The National Australia Bank has warned that rotational effects in the survey’s construction could result in a large downside miss in employment growth.
- With participation tipped to remain steady, the unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 5.8%.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release the report at 11.30am AEST.
Business Insider will have full coverage as soon as the data drops.