Volatile. A lottery. Not worth the paper it’s written on.
Whatever you call it, Australia’s jobs report for November will be released later on this morning with economists looking for a modest decline in employment after a stunning rise in October.
Here’s the state of play.
- In October, employment growth stunned markets, rising by 58,600, near quadruple the 15,000 increase expected. It was the largest monthly increase since March 2012.
- Full time employment jumped by 40,000, overshadowing a 18,600 increase in part time workers.
- As a result of the increase, total employment rose to 11,838,200, the highest level on record. The total number of unemployed decreased by 33,400 to 739,500.
- From a year earlier, employment jumped by 315,000, or 2.73% – the fastest annual percentage increase since November 2010.
- Despite a small 0.1% rise in labour market participation to 65.0%, the strong jobs growth was enough to see the unemployment rate tumble 0.3% to 5.9%, the lowest level seen since April 2014.
- According to a survey of 24 economists conducted by Bloomberg, the median market forecast is for employment to decline by 10,000 in November. Forecasts range from growth of 15,000 to a fall of 20,000, ensuring market volatility. Unemployment is tipped to rise 0.1% to 6.0%.
- While many economists are expecting “payback” for the strong employment growth in October, it does not guarantee that employment will fall in November. In the past decade there have been seven months, not including October 2015, where employment growth has exceeded 50,000. On five occasions, employment increased in the following month.
- Most complementary labour market indicators – including this week’s ANZ job ads survey – have been strengthening of late, suggesting that no matter how the ABS figures print today, labour market conditions are continuing to improve.
The ABS will release its November jobs report at 11.30am AEDT. Business Insider will have full coverage as soon as the data drops.