This morning the ABS will release its August employment report, a notoriously volatile yet entertaining data series.
Here’s the state of play.
- After adjustments to the estimated residential population announced yesterday by the ABS, total employment increased by 37,882 in July. 24,270 men found work, outpacing a 13,612 increase for women.
- Full time employment increased by 12,244, part time by 25,637.
- Overall, employment rose to 11,755,300, the highest level on record.
- Over the past year employment increased by 212,540, an increase of 1.84%. The last time employment grew at this pace was June 2011.
- Despite the rapid increase in employment, total unemployed rose by 38,278 due to a surprise jump in the size of the labour force. It increased by 76,159 to 12,551,100, the largest monthly gain since August 2002. It left labour market participation at 65.1%, a more than two-year high.
- With the labour force increase outpacing employment growth, the national unemployment rate rose to 6.34%, the equal highest level since August 2002. Now there’s a coincidence!
- Unemployment among men rose to 6.15% while that for women jumped to 6.56%, a level last seen in January 2002.
- Despite the headline jobs increase – dominated by men and part-time employment – there was an anomaly in the July data. Most of the national employment gains came from women finding work in NSW. Not only that, female labour market participation in NSW made up nearly half of the national increase. As Westpac’s senior economist Justin Smirk pointed out in a note released yesterday, “something is not right when all of the gains come from one state, from one gender and is associated with an outsized rise in participation”.
- In August markets expect employment to increase by 5,000. Unemployment is tipped to fall 0.1% to 6.2%.
The data will be released at 11.30am AEST.
Business Insider will have full coverage as soon as the data drops.
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