Later this morning the latest Westpac-MI consumer sentiment report will be released, with a change in Australia’s leadership and recent gains in financial markets pointing to the likelihood of a bounce in October.
Here’s the state of play.
- The survey is based upon responses from 1,200 adults across Australia and is generally conducted the week prior to the results being released.
- A reading of 100 is deemed neutral, meaning the number of optimists and pessimists is equal. A figure above 100 indicates optimists outnumber pessimists while a figure below 100 suggests pessimists outnumber optimists.
- Pessimists have outnumbered optimists in 17 of the past 19 surveys.
- In September the index fell 5.9% to 93.9, largely wiping out the 7.8% gain of August.
- The decline was largely due to heightened investor concern around the outlook for China’s economy, sluggish domestic economic growth and heightened volatility across financial markets.
- Weaker sentiment towards the outlook for family finances, house prices and the labour market also contributed to the decline.
- This is the first time the survey will capture the change in Australia’s political leadership. The September survey was conducted two week’s prior to Malcolm Turnbull replacing Tony Abbott as Australia’s prime minister.
- Other sentiment gauges such as ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index and NAB business survey recorded large bounces in response to Turnbull becoming prime minister.
- As seen in yesterday’s ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey, recent gains in stocks and the Australian dollar may also help to underpin confidence in October.
Westpac will release the survey at 10.30am AEDT. Business Insider will have full coverage as soon as the data drops.