Later this morning the NAB will release its closely-watched NAB business survey for October, with markets clearly expecting another strong showing on back of positivity generated by Malcolm Turnbull replacing Tony Abbott as Australia’s prime minister.
Here’s the state of play:
- The NAB survey is based on the responses of over 400 firms across Australia’s non-farm business sectors.
- In September, the headline business confidence index rose strongly, increasing from +1 to +5, the highest level since June.
- The NAB characterised the recovery as only “partial”, highlighting that the recovery came after “the government’s leadership uncertainties were resolved”.
- They also noted that the improvement was not broad-based, falling among mining, construction and finance firms.
- Despite the bounce in confidence, the separate business conditions index held steady at +9.
- There were divergent performances across the board with services-based industries continuing to outperform their mining peers.
- Measures on trading and profitably fell to +15 and +8 respectively, down from +19 and +10 in August, although the measure on employment rose to +4 from -1, the highest level since mid-2011.
- In overall terms, the NAB suggested that the September survey points to “a good degree of resilience in what appears to be a building non-mining sector recovery”, particularly in those industries highly responsive to near-term changes in the currency.
- While not a guarantee that the NAB survey will follow suit, the separate Roy Morgan business confidence index, an alternate gauge on Australian business sentiment, rose 5.8% to 119.3 in October, the highest level seen since November 2014.
The NAB will release its October survey at 11.30am AEDT. Business Insider will have full coverage as soon as the data drops.
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