This morning the closely-watched NAB business survey for September will be released.
Here’s the state of play:
- The NAB survey is based on the responses of over 540 firms across Australia’s non-farm business sector.
- In August there were mixed reads on the business confidence levels and conditions.
- The headline on business confidence gauge fell to +1 from +4, the lowest level seen since July 2013.
- The decline came despite the separate business conditions index jumping five points to +11, the highest level since October 2014. In trend terms, that which strips out month-to-month volatility, business conditions now sit at the highest level seen since 2009.
- Fitting with the increase in the conditions gauge, the survey’s subindices on trading and profitability recorded solid improvements.
- The gauge on trading conditions jumped to +20 from +12 while that for profitability increased to +12 from +7.
- With Malcolm Turnbull replacing incumbent Tony Abbott as Australia’s prime minister in September, there are expectations that business confidence will bounce strongly in today’s survey.
- The last time Australia’s prime minister changed at the 2013 federal election, the NAB’s business confidence measure surged to +12 from +4.
The NAB will release its September survey at 11.30am AEDT. Business Insider will have full coverage as soon as the data drops.