LONDON — The Conservatives are set to beat Labour in Wales for the first time in nearly 100 years, according to a new poll published on Monday.
YouGov has found that 40% of Welsh people intend to vote for the Tories on June 8, while 30% plan to back Labour.
It’s the first time the Conservatives have led Labour in a YouGov voting intention survey.
Theresa May’s Conservatives are up 12% on YouGov’s last Welsh survey. If borne out at the voting booth, it would be the first time the Tories have won in the Wales since 1922 — 95 years ago.
Here are the full results of the YouGov poll of voting intentions in Wales:
Plaid Cymru: 13%
Liberal Democrats: 8%
The poll has stunned political historians and academics as it suggests an electoral earthquake is set to take place in the Welsh National Assembly. Labour has dominated in Wales since the beginning of the 20th century but is facing the prospect of support collapsing in a spectacular fashion.
The same YouGov research found that the Tories continue to enjoy a huge lead over Labour across the UK.
48% of Brits intend to vote for May’s Conservatives in June, while 25% plan to back Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour. That’s a 23% lead for the Tories with just over six weeks until Brits will go the polls.
Corbyn has played down the importance of recent polling but as things stand he is on course to lead Labour to one of the party’s worst ever electoral performances. The Electoral Calculus is currently predicting the Tories to win 410 seats, which would give the ruling party a whopping parliamentary majority of 170 seats.
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