With about 24 hours to go before polls close in Scotland, the final YouGov poll measuring sentiment ahead of the referendum found the “No” campaign with a 52-48 lead over the “Yes” campaign.
YouGov’s final poll came just less than a week after YouGov found the “No” campaign regaining some momentum, regaining a 52-48 lead over the “Yes” campaign.
Two more opinion polls released Tuesday found the same results. In all three polls, the “Yes” campaign has clearly gathered steam over the past month — but it’s unclear if the momentum is enough to get it over the hump.
A mid-September YouGov poll showed the “Yes” vote taking the lead in Scotland, causing the British pound to collapse that weekend and early last week. The poll released last weekend found 51% of respondents choosing to vote “Yes” for independence, while 49% said they would vote “No.” But last week brought a 6-point swing for the “No” campaign, the first time it had gained ground in the survey since early August.
Here’s a chart from YouGov showing the swings:
A vote for independence could cause massive ramifications throughout Europe, and it would lead to a host of immediate questions for Scotland: Would it be able to still use the British pound, which fell to its lowest level in 10 months on news of the polls? Would it be able to stay a member of NATO? And would it be able to gain re-entry into the EU?
A “Yes” vote would also likely embolden other secessionist movements throughout Europe — what geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group, called the “contagion” effect.
Despite the overall tightening polls over the last month, most analysts still expect Scots to vote “No” on the referendum.
This post was updated at 5:07 p.m. ET.
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