It’s just like old times!
In a note on today’s jobs report, Deutsche Bank’s Joe LaVorgna actually trots out our old friend, “green shoot.”
labour “green shoots” lurk beneath the snow
Overview: As expected, inclement weather wreaked havoc with the January employment report, depressing both nonfarm payrolls and hours worked. Barring outsized weather disruptions in February, these distortions should reverse and we should see a sizeable payback next month. This is similar to what happened after a major blizzard in 1996. However, the sizeable and unexpected drop in the unemployment rate was legitimate and strongly suggests the economy is operating at an above trend pace this quarter. Consequently, we are in the midst of reviewing upside risks to our 2011 GDP projections. New forecasts will be published in next week’s edition of the US Economics Weekly.
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