Later this afternoon China will release industrial production, retail sales and urban fixed asset investment figures for October, affectionately known as simply the China data dump by many in the markets.
Here’s the state of play.
- The traditional drivers of Chinese economic growth, industrial output and fixed asset investment, have been weakening consistently this year.
- In the year to September, the former grew by just 5.7%, the second slowest level seen since the height of the global financial crisis. Between January to September, urban fixed asset investment increased by just 10.3% compared to the same period a year earlier, the smallest expansion recorded since June 2000.
- While the old drivers of economic growth continued to stutter, China’s new growth engine – retail sales as a component of consumption – continued to strengthen.
- Over the year, retail sales grew 10.9%, topping expectations for an expansion of 10.8%. It marked the fastest acceleration seen since December 2014.
- In October, markets expect the current trend to remain in place, although very little movement is expected in either of the three gauges.
- Industrial output is expected to increase 5.8% while growth in urban fixed asset investment between January to October is expected to slow to 10.2% from the same period of a year earlier.
- Retail sales are tipped to increase 10.9%, unchanged from September.
- Although not the market moving event it once was, given expectations for movement are so low, an outlier result – particularly from industrial output or retail sales – could result in an outsized market reaction.
The data dump will be released at 4.30pm AEDT. Business Insider will have full analysis as soon as it drops.
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