This chart, from Brett Ryan, an economist at Deutsche Bank, shows the intra-year range in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields for each year going back to 1962.
“Since July of last year, the 10-year has been in a 50 basis point range, peaking slightly above 3%,” writes Ryan in a note to clients.
“History suggests that such periods of low volatility are the exception rather than the norm.”
Deutsche Bank’s year-end target for the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is 4.00%, one of the highest on Wall Street and 130 basis points above today’s levels at 2.70%.
Though it seems far away, Ryan suggests that given historical averages, there’s still a “decent probability” that the 10-year gets to Deutsche Bank’s target.
“The five-year trailing average peak-to-trough move is 155 basis points and the 10-year trailing average is 143 basis points,” he writes.
“Over the last 52 years, there have been only 10 occasions where the intra-year move was less than 100 basis points. Moreover, there have been only six periods when the intra-year move was less than 90 basis points. Thus, if the 2014 growth outlook remains largely intact, 10-year rates have significant scope to move higher.”
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