Yet Another Ad Forecast Turns Out Wrong

Here’s an easy prediction: Another bigtime ad industry prognosticator dials back a 2008 ad spending estimate.

Universal McCann research chief Bob Coen issued his mid-year update today, and took the opportunity to revise his 2008 forecast, again. Coen now says U.S. ad spending will rise 2% in 2008 to $285 billion. That’s down from a 3.6% prediction in December, which was a re-do of an earlier prediction of 5% growth made exactly one year ago.

Coen reduced his projection for online display ad spending, too. He’s now predicting 12% growth ($11.7 billion) in 2008, down from his 16.5% estimate in December.

Overall, Coen says the ad industry is “in a severe slump” and spending was basically flat over the first four months of 2008.

Add it to the list of ad-forecast revisions over the past year:

  • July 7: BMO Capital Markets cuts its 2008 U.S. forecast to 1.8% from 3.6%
  • June 30: Zenith Optimedia cuts its U.S. ad forecast for the second time in three months
  • May 30: Lehman drops 2008 U.S. online ad forecast from 24% growth to 23%
  • March 19: eMarketer cuts its 2008 online ad forecast 6%
  • September 14: Oppenheimer cuts 2008 U.S. online ad estimate 26% growth to 25%

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