The disturbing news of the day: Initial jobless claims surged back above 380K to 386K for the week. And since jobless claims are among the best high-frequency datapoints, it’s always concerning when they spike.
But remember that last week was unusually low (probably thanks to July 4) so this week may just be cancelling out.
The definitive chart is this one: The year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average of claims.
As you can see, the 4-week moving average is down about 10% from a year ago, and that’s really where this number has been for about year. Nothing has broken that trend yet.
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