Yahoo is set to report Q4 earnings tonight after the close. We’ll be covering it live at SAI, so tune in at 4 PM.What are investors looking for from Yahoo? Something, anything, to get excited about the company.
The stock hasn’t moved under Bartz, and Kara Swisher reports that investors are starting to question if a turnaround is ever coming.
She also says they’re starting to grouse to the board about their dissatisfaction.
If it is coming, don’t look for signs this quarter. Analysts are expecting revenue to be down year over year.
As for the future of Yahoo, Mark Mahaney of Citigroup writes, “Our concern that YHOO doesn’t have the assets in place to take advantage of what appear to be inflection point trends in Social, Mobile & Local Internet, and Video.”
He also cautions that Google and Facebook are poised to steal display ad dollars from Yahoo.
For a more optimistic view, Douglas Anmuth at Barclays says Yahoo is going to benefit from the rebound in online display advertising, and its partnership with Microsoft will bring stronger than expected revenue per search.
Here’s 5 things Anmuth is looking for:
- Display pricing strength given improved sell-through across premium inventory, strong log-in page monetization, and increased penetration across key ad verticals like CPG;
- Bing integration, Revenue-per-Search improvements, and any impacts from lower affiliate monetization;
- Whether Yahoo!’s new ad and product platforms are on plan for a mid-2011 launch & continued focus on EBITDA margin expansion;
- Possible new reporting around Display, Search, and Other business lines;
- Page view and engagement headwinds, but growth in uniques.
The key consensus estimates via (Citi/Yahoo Finance):
- Gross revenue: $1.5 billion
- Net revenue: $1.19 billion
- Operating income: $239 million
- GAAP EPS: $0.22
- Guidance for Q4 Net Revenue: $1.12 billion
And here’s a “cheat sheet” from Mark Mahaney at Citigroup for tonight’s earnings. Click here, or on the image for a bigger version.
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