The 15 Worst Housing Markets For The Next Five Years

The housing market has been showing signs of strength. Economists expect home prices to rise 8% this year and then grow at a more modest pace beyond that.

Over the next five years, national home prices are projected to rise at an average 3.5% rate, according to the latest CoreLogic Case-Shiller report.

Of course, there will be laggards.

We drew on the latest data to identify the worst housing markets for the next five years — the markets with the lowest home price growth.

The 15 cities are ranked by the projected annualized change in home prices between Q4 2012 and Q4 2017.

Note: The median family income and home price is for Q4 2012. Unemployment data is as of February 2013, and population data for the metros is for 2011.

Waterloo-Cedar Falls, Iowa

Annualized expected growth from Q4 2012 - Q4 2017:
1.5%

The Waterloo-Cedar Falls metro area has a median family income of $66,100, above the national median of $64,200. It has a median home price of $121,000, below the national median of $180,000.

The metro has a population of 168,289 and an unemployment rate of 4.9%.

Data provided by CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes

Knoxville, Tennessee

Annualized expected growth from Q4 2012 - Q4 2017:
1.5%

Home prices in the Knoxville metro area have fallen 2.8% since they peaked in Q1 2008. It has a median home price of $146,000.

It has a population of 704,500, an unemployment rate of 6.4%, and a median family income of $61,000, below the national median of $64,200.

Data provided by CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes

Amarillo, Texas

Annualized expected growth from Q4 2012 - Q4 2017:
1.4%

The Amarillo metro area has a median family income of $63,200, and a median household price of $129,000. It has a population of 253,823, and an unemployment rate of 4.7%.

Data provided by CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes

Odessa, Texas

Annualized expected growth from Q4 2012 - Q4 2017:
1.4%

The Odessa metro area has a population of 140,111, an unemployment rate of 3.9%, and a median family income of $55,200.

Data provided by CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes

Elmira, New York

Annualized expected growth from Q4 2012 - Q4 2017:
1.3%

The Elmira metro area has a median household income of $58,800 and a median household price of $106,000. It has a population of 88,840, an unemployment rate of 9.6%.

Data provided by CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes

Midland, Texas

Annualized expected growth from Q4 2012 - Q4 2017:
1.3%

The Midland metro area has a population of 140,308, an unemployment rate of 3.2%, and a median family income of $68,900.

Data provided by CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas

Annualized expected growth from Q4 2012 - Q4 2017:
1.2%

The Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro area has a population of 1.8 million, an unemployment rate of 5.3%, and a median family income of $74,100.

It also has a median home price of $203,000, above the national median of $180,000.

Data provided by CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes

San Angelo, Texas

Annualized expected growth from Q4 2012 - Q4 2017:
1.2%

The San Angelo metro area has a population of 113,443, an unemployment rate of 5.0%, and a median family income of $56,700.

Data provided by CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes

Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tennessee

Annualized expected growth from Q4 2012 - Q4 2017:
1.2%

Home prices in the Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin metro area have declined 4.3% since they peaked in Q2 2007. It has a median home price of $145,000.

It has a population of 1.6 million, an unemployment rate of 6.2%, and a median family income of $62,800.

Data provided by CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes

Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, Colorado

Annualized expected growth from Q4 2012 - Q4 2017:
0.9%

Home prices in the Denver-Aurora-Broomfield metro area have fallen 3.2% since they peaked in Q1 2006. It has a median home price of $273,000.

It has a population of 2.6 million, an unemployment rate of 7.1%, and a median family income of $76,700.

Data provided by CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes

Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, Arizona

Annualized expected growth from Q4 2012 - Q4 2017:
0.8%

Home prices in the Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale metro area have plunged 45.0% since they peaked in Q2 2006. It has a median home price of $185,000.

The metro has a population of 4.26 million, an unemployment rate of 6.7%, and a median family income of $60,600.

Data provided by CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes

Ann Arbor, Michigan

Annualized expected growth from Q4 2012 - Q4 2017:
0.7%

Home prices in the Ann Arbor metro area have plunged 19.1% since they peaked in Q4 2005. It has a median home price of 180,000.

It has a population of 347,962, an unemployment rate of 5.6%, and a median family income of $85,600.

Data provided by CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes

Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Florida

Annualized expected growth from Q4 2012 - Q4 2017:
0.4%

Home prices in the Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach metro area have plunged 45.0% since they peaked in Q2 2006. It has a median home price of $225,000.

It has a population of 1.8 million, an unemployment rate of 6.4%, and a median family income of $60,700.

Data provided by CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes

Naples-Marco Island, Florida

Annualized expected growth from Q4 2012 - Q4 2017:
0.4%

Home prices in the Naples-Marco Island metro area have plunged 48.3% since they peaked in Q1 2006. It has a median home price of $272,000.

It has a population of 328,134, an unemployment rate of 7.6%, and a median family income of $64,300.

Data provided by CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes

Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Florida

Annualized expected growth from Q4 2012 - Q4 2017:
0.3%

Home prices in the Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall metro area have plunged 47.7% since they peaked in Q1 2007. It has a median home price of $210,000.

It has a population of 2.5 million, an unemployment rate of 9.7%, and a median family income of $48,500 below the national median of $64,200.

Data provided by CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes

Now look at metros where home prices are projected to rise the most...

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