With seven weeks left in the MLB season, the number of teams with a realistic shot to win the World Series is up to nine thanks to some recent divisional shake-ups.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the favourite, yet they have just a 16.4% chance to win it all, according to the “Playoff Odds Report” at Baseball Prospectus (or, an 83.6% chance to get knocked out along the way), down from 17.7% just after the All-Star break. The surprising Houston Astros (12.3%) and Toronto Blue Jays (12.0%) come in at Nos. 2 and 3.
In all, there are now nine teams with at least a 5% chance of winning the World Series, up from seven at the All-Star break (record in parentheses):
- Los Angeles Dodgers (67-51), 16.4%
- Houston Astros (64-54), 12.3%
- Toronto Blue Jays (65-54), 12.0%
- St. Louis Cardinals (75-42), 10.7%
- Kansas City Royals (71-46), 10.4%
- New York Yankees (64-52), 8.9%
- New York Mets (63-55), 7.4%
- Chicago Cubs (67-49), 5.4%
- Pittsburgh Pirates (69-46), 4.6%
In baseball, once a team gets to the playoffs, winning the World Series can be a bit of a crapshoot. So a team’s chances of winning it all is just as much about opportunity as it is about how well the team is performing.
Of the nine teams above, the top five all lead their division. These teams would have a huge advantage as they are on pace to avoid having to play in a Wild Card game, which adds another opportunity for a team to be eliminated. Meanwhile, the Mets are the lone division leader not among the top six suggesting the projection model is not confident they can keep up their recent pace, at least offensively.
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