World Oil Demand Revised DOWN, As Surging Prices Limit Demand

The International Energy Agency is out with its latest monthly energy report, and at first blush there’s nothing huge. The world is humming back like all the headlines say.

But there is one particularly interesting bit:

Global oil demand is revised down by 190 kb/d on average for 2009 and 2010, equating to 84.8 mb/d (-1.2 mb/d year-on-year) and 86.4 mb/d (+1.6 mb/d) respectively. Revisions stem largely from changes to non-OECD historical baseline data, as slightly higher GDP prognoses from the IMF are counterbalanced by a higher price assumption.

Meanwhile, peak oilists will be interested in this:

Non-OPEC oil supply fell to 52.4 mb/d in April, on seasonal output curbs. The 2010 forecast is revised up 0.2 mb/d to 52.3 mb/d on higher expectations for the US, Canada and China. Growth in 2010 of 0.8 mb/d is the strongest since 2004 and matches that for OPEC NGLs. The Deepwater Horizon drilling accident in the US Gulf has led to a major crude spill. Regional production is unaffected but the incident may lead to tighter safety measures and delay further offshore leasing.

As for the overall demand picture, it looks like this:

map

Photo: IEA

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