World Markets Review: The End Of A Bad 3rd Quarter

The 3rd quarter saw wretched performances in all of the world markets in this series.

The best quarterly performer, the Nikkei 225, lost 10.3% of its value, followed by the SENSEX, which was down 11%.

At the other extreme the DAX, CAC 40 and Hang Seng all lost about 25% of their value. The middle ground was occupied by the Shanghai, FTSE and S&P 500, which lost 14%, 14.4% and 15.9% respectively. Let’s hope next month sees some improvement. Certainly a bounce is due.

But the ongoing stresses in Euro land, the nasty bear market in China, and ECRI recession call in the U.S. suggest a cautious outlook.

The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these seven major indexes. I’ve also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colours for each index name help us visualise the comparative performance over time.

The chart below illustrates the comparative performance of World Markets since March 9, 2009. The start date is arbitrary: The S&P 500, CAC 40 and BSE SENSEX hit their lows on March 9th, the Nikkei 225 on March 10th, the DAX on March 6th, the FTSE on March 3rd, the Shanghai Composite on November 4, 2008, and the Hang Seng even earlier on October 27, 2008. However, by aligning on the same day and measuring the per cent change, we get a better sense of the relative performance than if we align the lows.

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A Longer Look Back

Here is the same chart starting from the turn of 21st century. The relative over-performance of the emerging markets (Shanghai, Mumbai, Hang Seng) is readily apparent.

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Check back next weekend for a new update.

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