- Goldman Sachs has used machine learning to simulate how it thinks the World Cup will play out.
- Goldman’s model previously predicted an England-Brazil final.
- However, Croatia is now expected to play Brazil in the final after its victory over Denmark.
- Brazil will still ultimately win the competition, securing its sixth World Cup.
Goldman Sachs has bad news for England fans – the Three Lions are no longer going to make it to the World Cup final, losing out at the expense of Croatia, according to its sophisticated prediction model.
Goldman used machine learning to simulate 1 million variations and pick a winner ahead of the tournament. It initially forecast a final between Brazil and Germany, with Brazil expected to ultimately triumph.
As the group stage neared its conclusion, Goldman changed its mind to forecast that it would be England facing off against the Brazilians in the final, although Brazil would still triumph.
Now though, Goldman has changed its mind again, and it’s bad news for England fans.
Brazil will still win the World Cup, the bank’s models suggest, but it will do so at the expense of Croatia – which the bank expects will beat England in the competition’s semifinal stage.
“Brazil retains its place at the top of the probability table, and as the winner in the most likely final game, against Croatia,” Goldman’s team, led by Jan Hatzius wrote on Monday.
“The Croatian team’s chances have been boosted by Spain’s loss, and indeed the model predicts that they will defeat England in the semi-finals.”
If Croatia does manage to progress all the way to the final, it will improve on their previous best tournament performance – a 3rd place finish in the 1998 World Cup. During that tournament, Croatia, playing in its first ever World Cup made the semi finals, losing to eventual winners France.
On Sunday, Spain lost in penalties against Russia in a game that was one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history, an event that changes Goldman’s forecasts significantly.
England, Goldman forecasts will beat Colombia on Tuesday and Switzerland in the quarterfinals, before their ultimate defeat to the Croats. On the other side of the bracket, Brazil will face France in the semifinals, just beating the side which humbled Lionel Messi’s Argentina.
You can see Goldman’s full bracket below:
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