The World Bank just published an update to its latest Global Economic Prospects report.
“Four years after the onset of the global financial crisis, the worst appears to be over,” they write. “However, the global economy remains fragile, as high-income countries continue to suffer from volatility and slow growth, says the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects, issued today.
“Despite slow growth in high-income countries, prospects for the developing world remain solid (albeit between 1 and 2 percentage points slower than in the pre-crisis period). In order to regain those earlier faster growth rates, developing countries will need to focus on productivity-enhancing domestic policies, to assure robust growth in the long term.”
The report includes updates to the World Bank’s forecasts for growth. Here are the key estimates and forecasts (June estimates in parenthesis):
- 2.3 per cent global GDP growth in 2012 (down from 2.5 per cent)
- 2.4 per cent global GDP growth in 2013 (down from 3.0 per cent)
- 3.1 per cent global GDP growth in 2014 (down from 3.3 per cent)
- 3.3 per cent global GDP growth in 2015
“While diminished, downside risks to the global economy persist and include a stalling of progress on the Euro Area crisis, debt and fiscal issues in the United States, the possibility of a sharp slowing of investment in China, and a disruption in global oil supplies,” they write.
“In this weak external environment, growth for developing countries will need to come from within, by strengthening governance and investing in infrastructure, education, and health care.”