The US is no longer the favourite to win the Women's World Cup

After consistently being listed as the favourite to win the Women’s World Cup, the United States women’s national team has been replaced by Germany as the favourite heading into the quarterfinals, according to the latest model by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.

The US, who were a slight favourite prior to the tournament, opened up a 33%-25% lead over Germany entering the knockout stage. But with the US team looking shaky at times and losing Lauren Holiday and Megan Rapinoe for their quarterfinal matchup against China due to an accumulation of yellow cards, Germany is now the slight favourite.

Germany’s lead would likely be much greater if the two teams had equal paths to the final. But while the US gets to face 16th-ranked China, Germany must face 3rd-ranked France in their quarterfinal matchup thanks to FIFA’s efforts to maximise attendance and television ratings.

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