The United States and Germany are the overwhelming favourites to win the World Cup but the gap between the top teams and the rest of the world is narrowing, according to the latest model by Nate Silver.
In addition to the two favourites, five other countries have at least a 5% chance of winning the World Cup, including the host nation, Canada, and the defending champions, Japan.
Here are the chances of winning the World Cup entering the first week of the tournament:
- United States, 28%
- Germany, 27%
- Japan, 10%
- France, 8%
- Canada, 7%
- Brazil, 6%
- Sweden, 5%
No other country has more than a 2% chance of winning the tournament and 14 of the 24 teams are being given less than 1% chance of winning.
The United States also has a 96% chance of getting out of the group stage and a 65% chance of reaching the semifinals.
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