Euro problems aside, the ceaseless recovery of US economic data (see this morning’s Chicago PMI and consumer expectations) has pretty much silenced the folks calling for an imminent double dip.
So Nouriel Roubini, we’re looking at you because when we read David Rosenberg — a bear of the “perma” variety — we now see commentary like this:
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey was another strong U.S. regional survey, adding to the list of manufacturing polls that have been better than expected. General business activity jumped to 16.2 from 2.6, the best reading in seven months. Similar to many of the other regional surveys, the components mirrored the strong headline with production up strongly. The labour subcomponents were solid as well, with the average employee workweek rising to 6.2, reversing four months of declines and the number of employees rose to 5.8, much better than the -4.1 reading in October and the highest level since May. Overall, we continue to expect an upside surprise to the ISM index due out tomorrow, which is expected to come in at 56.5 in November.
Of course, this is the new conventional wisdom: recovery intact, potential for recovery-derailing crisis still huge.
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