FORTUNE — The NPD Group’s Stephen Baker chose Tuesday 9/11 — the day before the expected launch of Apple’s (AAPL) new iPhone — to pour cold water on what he calls the “growing expectation that this release will achieve the equivalent blowout sales success that the iPhone 4s enjoyed.”
Equivalent? As we reported Monday, conventional wisdom on Wall Street has it that the iPhone 5 will outsell the iPhone 4S by a wide margin.
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