Self-driving cars have entered the peak phase of their hype cycle, according to Gartner’s annual Hype Cycle For Emerging Technologies report, released earlier this week. Gartner’s hype cycle measures the public’s expectations for emerging technologies as they are developed and adopted. After reaching its peak hype point, a technology enters the disillusionment stage, the point in which it fails to meet consumers’ original lofty expectations. The technology then regains promise, when it becomes more widely deployed and integrated with other technologies.
Gartner said that self-driving cars are 5-10 years away from reaching that point of wide adoption. Nearly all major automakers have already started testing autonomous vehicles. BI Intelligence projects that self-driving cars will account for 3% of new cars shipped in 2020, and they will make up an increasing share of shipments after that. How consumers respond to these first self-driving cars on the market remains to be seen, though. If consumers are sceptical of the first self-driving car models, or aren’t willing to pay more for self-driving cars, adoption could be very slow.
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