There seems to be this meme going around that goes something like this: Sure, the ADP report was smokin’ good, but let’s wait until the “real” numbers on Friday before uncorking the bubbly.
This is silly.
There are no “real” numbers, just various surveys that various organisations do to try to ascertain an inherently nebulous and unknowable thing, which is the state of the labour market.
So, the ADP does a survey, Challenger does a survey (looking at layoffs), the BLS does a survey, and lots of other organisations do a survey, too.
The bottom line is that the economy is improving, and based on some fresh numbers, it appears to be improving rapidly (the latest ISM helps confirms it).
Now over the long term if there were a huge divergence between ADP and NFP that’d be a head scratcher, but in terms of looking for the real number, stop waiting. There’s no such think.
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