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After last night’s win, their sixth in a row, many now believe that the Phillies are suddenly back in the playoff race, in a season that many thought was over long ago. But a closer look at the numbers shows that the Phillies still have almost no shot at making the playoffs, and their fans are dancing with false hopes.According to CoolStandings.com the Phillies have just a 3.0% chance of making the playoffs. And here is why:
By reaching the .500 mark (71-71) for the first time since early June, the Phillies are now just four games behind the St. Louis Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. But four games at this time of year is a lot bigger than it sounds.
The Cardinals have just 20 games remaining. Even if they go just 10-10 down the stretch, the Phillies would have to go 14-6 just to tie. Not impossible. But not easy either.
But maybe more importantly, there are two teams (Dodgers, Pirates) between the Phillies and the Cardinals. And a third team is tied with the Phillies. It is one thing to hope the Cardinals suddenly play horrible baseball. It is something else to blindly hope that four good teams all start playing losing baseball at the same time.
Here are the chances for each team of reaching the playoffs…
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