The above chart shows monthly non-farm payroll changes (in blue) vs. the 4-week moving average of initial claims inversed (in red).
Dutch Book at Stone Street Advisors argues that this is a big deal for the next jobs report (which is a week from Friday):
Over the past 35 years each time the 4 week moving average on initial claims broke under 375k then NFP trended above 250k.
There are other things pointing to a big number.
As The Bonddad Blog points out, initial jobless claims as a percentage of the population are consistent with a sub-8 per cent unemployment rate now.
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