Why The Next Jobs Report Could Be A Total Monster


Photo: FRED

The above chart shows monthly non-farm payroll changes (in blue) vs. the 4-week moving average of initial claims inversed (in red).

Dutch Book at Stone Street Advisors argues that this is a big deal for the next jobs report (which is a week from Friday):

Over the past 35 years each time the 4 week moving average on initial claims broke under 375k then NFP trended above 250k.

There are other things pointing to a big number.

As The Bonddad Blog points out, initial jobless claims as a percentage of the population are consistent with a sub-8 per cent unemployment rate now.

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