Here’s a little something interesting about the gold market that was put out in a note this morning:
Based on a seasonal study by the Commodity Trader’s Almanac, Gold tends to make a peak around January 14 and work lower over the next 38 trading days. The Almanac says that this has been a sound trade 23 times over the past 35 years, or a 65.7% profit probability. Not bad. This year April gold peaked early on December 3 and reached its nadir on February 5, or 46 trading days later. While the start dates are different, we consider the approaching end of the seasonally weak period on March 18 important as we should not trade against it and it gives us one more reason to be bullish. The April gold future closed above its 50-day moving average Tuesday, and the June Dollar index future is poised to test/break its up trendline.