It’s still March, however, like any good chess player we want to be thinking a few moves ahead of the competition. With that in mind, it’s helpful to take a look at the seasonal trends in April. Historically, April is the best month of the year. Let’s review some facts from the Stock Trader’s Almanac:
◆ April is still the best Dow month (average 2.0%) since 1950
◆ April 1999 first month ever to gain 1000 Dow points, 856 in 2001, knocked off its high horse in 2002 down 458, 2003 up 488
◆ Up five straight, average gain 4.3%
◆ Prone to weakness after mid-month tax deadline
◆ Stocks anticipate great first quarter earnings by rising sharply before earnings are reported, rather than after
◆ Rarely a dangerous month, recent exceptions are 2002, 2004, and 2005
◆ “Best Six Months” of the year end with April
◆ In pre-presidential election years since 1951, average gains more than double (Dow 4.3%, S&P 3.7%, NASDAQ 3.7%)
◆ End of April NASDAQ strength.
Resilient market, another good earnings season on the horizon, QE2 and the Bernanke Put, sell in May is still a month off, historical trends. It almost looks too good to be true for the bulls….
Source: Stock Trader’s Almanac
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