In his latest weekly note, fund manager John Hussman doesn’t have too much new to say except that he really doesn’t like the market right now, and that conditions are getting even more bearish.
The best, most original part is where he compares himself to Willy Wonka:
In the classic version of Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Gene Wilder watches one child after another ignoring every cautionary warning, with predictably bad consequences. His deadpan appeals become increasingly halfhearted and emotionless because he knows they won’t listen anyway. We’re strongly defensive based on historical evidence that is in the most negative 0.5-1.5% of all historical observations, but it’s clear that others are willing to take significant market risk here, not as part of a long-term investment discipline or as part of a balanced portfolio strategy, but simply as a speculation – in the belief that they’ll be able to take their profits and get out before other speculators do. Our only response to these speculators is to quote Willy Wonka: “I wouldn’t do that. I really wouldn’t. No… Stop… Don’t.”