Even at this late hour, economists are revising and introducing new predictions for Friday’s big Non-Farm Payrolls report.Consensus is around 210K, but estimates are all over the map, including our call for 285K.
Coming in on the more pessimistic side of things are Goldman’s Sven Jari Stehn and Andrew Tilton, who are calling for 200K, with risks skewed to the downside.
Why aren’t they more bullish?
- Initial claims have stopped improving.
- The employment subindices of the ISM reports both weakened from January.
- Online job advertising has been flat.
- ADP was just meh.
There are two other wildcards.
The first is that manufacturing was unusually strong in January (+50K) so they expect that to correct. On the other hand, February was very warm, and that will provide a boost.
So there you go: Goldman: 200K and an 8.2% unemployment rate.