Why Goldman Is Feeling More Optimistic, In One Paragraph

jan hatzius

From Goldman’s Jan Hatzius:

Developments over the past few weeks have reinforced our view that US growth will improve modestly. First, the temporary negatives—the inventory cycle, the weather unwind, and the potential seasonal adjustment distortions—are now clearly behind us. Second, the housing recovery is picking up steam, with a sharp increase in the NAHB homebuilders index (the best short-term leading indicator of housing activity) and ongoing improvement in house prices. Third, real disposable income has continued to recover and is now up 4% on a 6-month annualized basis; this pace is unlikely to be sustained as the stabilisation in oil prices feeds through into retail energy prices, but the gains do provide a basis for somewhat better consumer spending. And fourth, financial conditions as measured by our GSFCI have reversed all of the tightening that took place in the spring and now stands at the easiest level since August 2011.

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