Why Gold Is On Its Longest Losing Streak In 8 Years

Gold is on its longest losing streak in 8 years.

Per the AP, it’s now fallen 6 straight weeks, and is 8% below where it was on October 4.

Why is gold losing its appeal?

There are two main drivers of gold.

One is volatility. When volatility rises, people rush to it as a “safe” asset. Volatility’s been getting crushed lately. Even with all of the Fiscal Cliff/Debt Ceiling nonsense, people are starting to become immune to it all.

The other aspect is interest rates. Particularly real interest rates. As real interest rates rise (or start to rise) the dollar holds more appeal, and gold holds relatively less appeal. Interest rates have been ticking up, and there are the first murmurs about an end date for the Fed’s extraordinary easing. This too makes gold marginally less attractive.

For a fun chart relating to volatility and gold, here’s a look at volatility (red line) vs. gold/oil (blue line). It’s not a perfect match, but it’s clear: When volatility spikes, gold surges relative to the industrial commodity oil.


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