Everyone But Nate Silver Thinks Obama's Lead Is Evaporating Fast

Obama’s odds of winning re-election continue to fall on betting markets Intrade and Betfair. Many polls also show what increasingly looks like a dead heat (or even, in some cases, a Romney lead).

But NYT polling guru Nate Silver, remains confident of an Obama victory. In fact, despite a modest downtick yesterday, Silver thinks Obama’s odds of winning have been increasing for the past two weeks.

Let’s go to the data…

First, Nate Silver now gives Obama 68% chance of reelection. That’s up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% three weeks ago.

Nate Silver

Photo: Nate Silver, New York Times


On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama’s odds have dropped to a startlingly low 54% from a high last month of 78%. As the second chart shows, these are Obama’s lowest odds of getting reelected since June.

Intrade Obama month

Photo: Intrade

Obama intrade long

Photo: Intrade


And, on Betfair, Obama’s odds have dropped back to just over 60% from a high over 80% a few weeks ago.

Betfair obama

Photo: Betfair

In short, in everything but some of the national polls (namely, Gallup), Obama still has a lead. But it’s narrowing rapidly.

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