NATE SILVER: Obama's Odds Of Winning Have Now Surged All The Way To 77%

Obama’s odds of winning re-election have now hit 77%, according to New York Times polling guru Nate Silver.

Obama’s lead on betting markets Intrade and Betfair has also continued to increase.

These assessments come despite the continued release of some national polls, namely Gallup, that look good for Romney. The difference between the national polls and the betting markets, some polling experts say, is that the national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Silver’s odds focus on state-by-state polls aimed at determining the winner of the electoral college–and, with it, the Presidency.

Let’s go to the data…

First, Nate Silver now gives Obama 77% chance of reelection. That’s up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% three weeks ago, and it’s climbing back toward the 80% all-time peak Obama hit just before the first debate.

Nate Silver Election Odds

Photo: Nate Silver, New York Times


On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama’s odds are holding in the low 60% range, where they have been for most of the past month.

Intrade election odds

Photo: Intrade


Obama intrade long

Photo: Intrade


And, on Betfair, Obama’s odds have just cracked 70% again.

Betfair election odds

Photo: Betfair

In short, in everything but some of the national polls (namely, Gallup), Obama has a solid lead in the race for 270 electoral votes. And he has extended it considerably over the past couple of weeks.

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