NATE SILVER: Obama's Odds Of Winning Are Now Back Over 70%

Obama’s odds of winning re-election are rising again according to all three sources we’re monitoring: Polling guru Nate Silver and betting markets Intrade and Betfair.

All three say Obama’s chances have risen significantly in the past week, despite the release of some polls that have looked great for Romney.

Let’s go to the data…

First, Nate Silver now gives Obama 71% chance of reelection. That’s up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% three weeks ago, and it’s climbing back toward the 80% peak Obama hit just before the first debate.

Nate Silver Obama Odds

Photo: Nate Silver, New York Times


On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama’s odds have climbed back over 60% from a startlingly low 54% a few days ago. Intrade’s odds are still much more favourable to Romney than Nate Silver or Betfair.

Intrade Obama odds

Photo: Intrade

Obama intrade long

Photo: Intrade


And, on Betfair, Obama’s odds have climbed back to 70% from a low of nearly 60% a few days ago.

Betfair election odds

Photo: Betfair

In short, in everything but some of the national polls (namely, Gallup), Obama has a solid lead. And he has been extending it over the past few days.

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