Obama’s odds of winning re-election are rising again according to all three sources we’re monitoring: Polling guru Nate Silver and betting markets Intrade and Betfair.
All three say Obama’s chances have risen significantly in the past week, despite the release of some polls that have looked great for Romney.
Let’s go to the data…
First, Nate Silver now gives Obama 71% chance of reelection. That’s up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% three weeks ago, and it’s climbing back toward the 80% peak Obama hit just before the first debate.
Photo: Nate Silver, New York Times
On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama’s odds have climbed back over 60% from a startlingly low 54% a few days ago. Intrade’s odds are still much more favourable to Romney than Nate Silver or Betfair.
In short, in everything but some of the national polls (namely, Gallup), Obama has a solid lead. And he has been extending it over the past few days.
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