Who's Going To Win The Most Olympic Gold Medals? The Market Says China

Who’s going to come out on top in the gold medal count, USA or China? Does the changing of the Superpower guard begin this year?

According to the best forecaster we know of–the market–the answer to the latter question is a resounding “yes.” China will win hands down. 

The current gold medal tally (as of this writing) is China 17, USA 10. And the predictive markets at tradesports.com don’t believe we’re going to catch up:

Probability Of Winning The Most Gold Medals

China: 78.9%

USA: 27.9%

This is the same market that correctly predicted how all 50 states would lean in the 2004 Bush-Kerry Presidential election.

The only solace is that the volume is rather small. And that the US has 70% chance to win the overall medal count.

See Also:
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