As Yields Blast Past 25%, Here's Who Gets Pounded In The Inevitable Greek Restructuring

Carla Bruni

Greek short-term yields are soaring and German officials are mumbling that the country will need to restructure in the short, rather than long-term.

The potential for contagion within the eurozone, and beyond, is significant, as Greek debt is held in bulk by many of the world’s banks.

And while they’re reducing their positions, what they hold may be enough to damage their balance sheets and impact growth throughout Europe.

Japanese banks hold $500 million in Greek debt

Spanish banks hold $600 million in Greek debt

U.S. banks hold $1.8 billion in Greek debt

Italian banks hold $2.6 billion in Greek debt

UK banks hold $3.2 billion in Greek debt

French banks hold $19.8 billion in Greek debt

German banks hold $26.3 billion in Greek debt

Other Eurozone countries hold $15.7 billion in Greek debt

Banks in Europe have been working to cut their exposures.

If a restructuring does occur, the risk trade will be clobbered.

JP Morgan: There will be a flight to US treasuries and yields will fall there as a result of renewed risk aversion. This will widen spreads on high grade corporate bonds as a result.

If the IMF has to step in with more cash, other bailouts could be endangered.

Wells Fargo: If IMF has to act on Greece and its neighbours, particularly Spain, its could be hindered in acting in other crisis around the world as it will use up too much of its capital.

Note: Data from 2010.

Insurance: Several insurance companies have the potential for contagion risk

Morgan Stanley: There are only a few businesses heavily exposed to one of Greece, Spain, or Portugal, but they include MapFre and Fortis.

Note: Data from 2010.

Insurance: Fortis has significant exposure to Greece, Portugal, and Italy

Morgan Stanley: 39% of Fortis' tangible book value is exposed in Greece, 25% in Portugal, and 69% in Italy.

Note: Data from 2010.

Insurance: Potential contagion risks for giants

Morgan Stanley: While not over exposed to Greece or any of the PIIGs, several of the insurance giants have positions in each country which could become difficult if crisis was to spread throughout the debt troubled states after a Greek default or rescue. This is, however, unlikely.

Note: Data from 2010.

Other countries will have a much harder time entering the Euro.

Morgan Stanley: The Greek crisis will make the EMU much more concerned about who they let into the Euro zone in the future. They will start to check more economic criteria, such as external imbalances and budget positions.

ECB: Rate hike cycle may be stalled

The ECB's current round of rate hike, intended to curb inflationary pressures on the eurozone, may have to be halted if a Greek restructuring damages the continent's banking system.

Bulgaria and Romania will get slammed by a pullback in Greek lending.

Morgan Stanley: Bulgaria and Romania rely on Greek banks for a large amount of lending, much of which will be cut back in a Greek collapse due to a reliance on government loans. Reliance will shift towards local deposits as a source of lending, but these economies are struggling somewhat themselves.

Note: Data from 2010.

Macedonia, and Albania will be hit too

Morgan Stanley: When the Greek economy slides, foreign workers from Albania and Bulgaria may lose jobs and stop sending home remittances. Also, FDI to Macedonia (7% of its GDP) and Bulgaria (8% of GDP) will decrease.

Note: Data from 2010.

Extreme Tail Risk: Complete Greek Bank retrenchment crushes Central Eastern Europe

Morgan Stanley: Extreme tail risk scenario points to complete retrenchment by Greek banks from all Central Eastern European markets which results in their loan books not being rolled over to their local subsidiaries.

Could spark a credit crisis in countries like Romania and Bulgaria, where 25% and 45% of the respective country's loans come from.

Note: Data from 2010.

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