With less than a week to go before the first Republican debate of the 2016 campaign, three Republican candidates are jostling for the final two spots on the primetime stage.
Fox News, which is hosting the first debate next Thursday, has limited the Republican participants in the primetime debate to the 10 candidates polling best in an average of five recent national polls. The candidates who don’t make the primetime debate stage will participate in a separate debate hours earlier.
Though it’s not clear which polls Fox will use — and there will likely be a couple more released before Thursday’s debate — the Real Clear Politics average of six recent polls paints a picture of which candidates are in, which are on the bubble, and which are probably out.
Here’s a look.
- Donald Trump, real-estate magnate: 20.8% average as of Saturday
- Scott Walker, Wisconsin governor: 13.7%
- Jeb Bush, Florida governor: 12.2%
- Marco Rubio, US senator from Florida: 6.8%
- Mike Huckabee, former Arkansas governor: 6.3%
- Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon: 6.2%
- Rand Paul, US senator from Kentucky: 5.5%
- Ted Cruz, US senator from Texas: 5.2%
Republican presidential candidate former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush speaks at the Maverick PAC conference Friday, July 17, 2015, in Las Vegas.
ON THE BUBBLE
- John Kasich, Ohio governor: 3.5%. Kasich has been surging since announcing his candidacy a little less than two weeks ago, and it looks like he’ll most likely be on stage for the primetime debate.
- Chris Christie, New Jersey governor: 3%. Christie currently ranks No. 10, giving him little room for error.
- Rick Perry, former Texas governor: 2.2%. Despite weeks of directly engaging with Trump, Perry has moved little in national polls. Unless he leaps Christie and/or Kasich in a final batch, he could be out of luck.
Republican Ohio Governor John Kasich gestures at a news conference
- Bobby Jindal, Louisiana governor: 1.5%.
- Rick Santorum, former US senator from Pennsylvania: 1.5%.
- Carly Fiorina, former Hewlett Packard CEO: 1.3%.
- George Pataki, former New York governor: 0.7%.
- Lindsey Graham, senator from South Carolina: N/A
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