Political professionals are closely watching a single county in Kentucky.
Polls have already closed in Jefferson Country, Kentucky, although the media probably won’t release exit polling until the polls close for the entire state. In 2004, there were 330,000 votes cast in Jefferson County. John Kerry barely edged out George Bush. The Democratic candidate for Senate did better, garnering 2000,000 votes.
If turnout is much higher in Jefferson County, this will be a good night for Barack Obama and a bad night for Republican Senator Mitch McConnell. The Republican could lose his seat if Obama draws out a large number of new voters. This would give the Democrats an extra Senate seat, and probably mean that endangered Republicans in nearby states could lose their seats as well.
In short, watch those early Kentucky numbers.
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