Is Greece, Ireland, and Portugal get downgraded to junk, and the entire Euro area seems due for another mini flare-up, we wanted to relate a point we heard from a money manager at dinner the other night.
When a country ultimately is ready to leave the eurozone — something that will probably happen, unless a fiscal union becomes reality — that country will give you zero advanced warning.
It really is only conceivable if it can somehow do it by surprise, before a gigantic run on the domestic banks occur, and everyone rushes to get their money into euro-denominated accounts that won’t be converted to, say, drachma.
It will be wrenching either way for the country that does it, but the short, sharp, swift approach is more plausible, and that means you will get zero notice.
And then when day, it will be gone.