What You Need To Know About These 5 Markets Before Monday August 1

July 31, 2011 (Sunday)  — 
CME – S&P 500 INDEX (June) – Daily
Near Term Trend: Neutral
Friday’s Close: 1341.00 (-1.40)
UPDATE: Recall over a week ago, as the Index was trading near 1340.00, we stated, “Resistance between 1350.00 & 1360.00 is formidable”. The market subsequently up toward the 1343.00 regionbefore selling off nearly 65 points, down to Friday’s low of 1279.00.  As we enter the new week, the market appears to be in precarious position as our lovely core of Politicians banter on the ultimate debt servicing and future credit rating of our Nation.  I am inclined to buy this dip, and will be looking for an entry point during the next couple of trading days.To play this trade use (NYSEArca: SPY)

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NYMEX – CRUDE OIL – Weekly
Intermediate Trend (3 Months): Neutral
Friday’s Close: $95.70 (-1.74)
UPDATE:Overall, our prediction (published during the end of May, as the market was trading near the $100.00 region), of the market trading down to the $89.00 region was on target, six weeks ago, and to date, continues to remain the low.  Our blue proprietary up-trend line continues to define the overall Bull trend, and the 100- Day Moving Average (green) Line remains positively sloped. In light of this, the market has failed four times in the last four weeks to clearly break above and sustain price action above the $100.00 region.  The dip this past week to $94.95 is testing critical support just above the trend line. To Play this move use: (NYSEArca: OIL) 

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YMEX – GOLD (August) – Daily
NearTerm Trend – Positive
Friday’s Close: $1,628.30 (+14.90)
UPDATE: Overall, the trend in Gold remains solidly positive. The 21- day Moving Average line (Intersecting red line) is positively sloped,and since the Island Reversal pattern was formed, during the last week in June (see chart), this marker has not looked back. Regardless of these various bullish connotations, I believe there is a risk to being long at this juncture. If you’ve participated in a fair portion of the price appreciation in Gold, during the last six months, I would recommend booking partial profits against long positions (at least 30%). For me; I’m looking to outright short.  To Play this move use:(NYSEArca: GLD)

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CBT – U.S. 10 YEAR NOTE (Sept) – Daily
Near Term Trend:  Positive
Friday’s Trade: 15’220 (+1pt 6)  Yield: 2.80%
UPDATE: Yields are currently at their lowest level since December 2010. Even in light of the current indecisiveness within the Government on how to resolve the debt ceiling issue, traders/ investors are gathering paper which is still rated “AAA”.  Technically speaking the September contract, on Friday, clearly broke above our defined resistance region, which had been in place since mid- June. Based on this breakout, measurement up to 126’180 is still possible. Keep in mind however, the position of the 21- Day M.A. (green) line at 124’01is signaling the market is becoming overbought.To play this move use: (NYSEArca: UUP)(NYSEArca: UDN)
 

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CME- Australian Dollar vs. U.S. Dollar – Weekly
Intermediate Trend (3 Months): Positive
Friday’s Close: 1.0931 (+ 12)
UPDATE: While I appeared on CNBC, five weeks ago, I called for a move in Aussie to trade from the 1.0400 region to above 1.0800. This past week, the market traded up to 1.0948, meeting my objective, and hitting a new historical high against the U.S. Dollar as well. On CNBC on Friday (5:30 EST), I recommended selling Aussie at current levels.

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