What You Need To Know About The June Housing Slide

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The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Slow in June but Remain Above Year-Ago Levels

Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 5.1 per cent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.37 million units in June from 5.66 million in May, but are 9.8 per cent higher than the 4.89 million-unit pace in June 2009.

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Total housing inventory at the end of June rose 2.5 per cent to 3.99 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.9-month supply at the current sales pace, up from an 8.3-month supply in May.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

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Sales in June 2010 (5.37 million SAAR) were 5.1% lower than last month, and were 9.8% higher than June 2009 (4.89 million SAAR).

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 3.99 million in June from 3.89 million in May. The all time record high was 4.58 million homes for sale in July 2008.

Inventory is not seasonally adjusted and there is a clear seasonal pattern with inventory increasing in the spring and into the summer. I’ll have more on inventory later …

The last graph shows the ‘months of supply’ metric.

Months of supply increased to 8.9 months in June from 8.3 months in May. A normal market has under 6 months of supply, so this is already high – and probably excludes some substantial shadow inventory. And the months of supply will increase sharply next month when sales collapse.

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