SoberLook posts a chart from JPMorgan asking investors what they think will happen to long-term interest rates (10-year Treasury rates, specifically) if the US were to default on its debt due to a debt ceiling breach.
It’s a little small, but the gist is that far more investors think that interest rates will go DOWN in the event of a default than think they will go up.
When the media typically talks about default, it’s usually presented as this scenario that will shake confidence in US creditworthiness, causing borrowing costs to soar.
But to industry players, what they see is a panic, and ironically enough, a flight to the one asset that always catches a bid during panics: Treasuries. And thus rates are seen by a solid majority of players as likely to fall.
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