From Eric Green at TD Securities, a quick look at how Sandy influenced today’s numbers:First, the weather effect was stated as having only a modest effect on the payroll numbers today. That doesn’t it won’t show up, and there is a very good chance the November print gets revised down as a more complete data set materialises.
Second, the household survey indicated that those not at work due to “weather” jumped by 369k, about 300k above average for the month. So, there was a big weather effect on the household survey, it just didn’t fully translate into payrolls in November.
Third, household employment fell by 122k but we can surmise it would have been up absent the weather effect. The labour force fell by about 350k so the drop in the unemployment rate reflects weakness not strength. That is seen in the participation rate which fell to a new cycle low of 63.6% from 63.8%.
Fourth, the distribution of gains and losses in payrolls by sector was interesting. One would have thought temporary help would have suffered but instead rose by 18k and leisure and hospitality jobs rose at a faster rate on the month. Construction was down by 20k which was weaker than expected, manufacturing fell 7k which is consistent with a Sandy effect, but retail jobs surged by 53k, well ahead of all reasonable expectations. Net revisions were down 49k over prior months, but these were all government jobs, nety private jobs revisions was only 1k lower.
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